The Houston Texans will be trying to bounce back from their worst defeat in almost two years when they return home this week to take on the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football as 4-point favorites on the NFL betting odds.
Houston is coming off a crushing 41-7 loss in Baltimore in Week 11, dropping the team into a tie with Indianapolis atop the AFC South standings going into Thursday night’s game at NRG Stadium.
In addition to erasing their divisional lead, the Texans’ loss to the Ravens as 4.5-point road underdogs put the brakes on a two-game straight-up win streak. Houston has also struggled to regularly pay out against the NFL spread, going 1-3 in its past four outings.
Overall, the Texans have compiled a middling 5-5 ATS record over the course of the current NFL football season, and have particularly struggled on the NFL odds in recent home dates, going 2-5 ATS in their past seven.
But while the Texans have produced uneven results at home, the UNDER has regularly paid out in totals betting, prevailing in seven of their past eight dates at NRG Stadium, and in each of the team’s past three overall contests. Houston also looks to Week 12 amid its first-ever two-game SU win streak on Thursday Night Football. The Texans tallied a 42-23 win over the visiting Miami Dolphins in their last Thursday primetime appearance in October of last year, and now sport a 3-6 SU all-time record on Thursday Night Football.
The Texans have regularly come up short in recent dates with the Colts, losing outright and ATS in three straight meetings. That run was capped by a 30-23 loss in Indianapolis as 1.5-point underdogs on the Week 7 NFL lines, which gives the Colts the edge in tiebreakers. But despite those shaky trends, and recent poor results against the Colts, Houston continues to lead the way on the odds to win the AFC South as -110 chalk.
Colts, Texans are Tied Atop the AFC South Standings
The Colts pulled even with Houston in the divisional standings thanks to a decisive 33-13 win over the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday afternoon. However, like the Texans, Indianapolis has struggled to produce consistent results of late in NFL betting. The team’s victory over the Jaguars snapped a two-game SU slide that threatened to bounce them from playoff contention, and they have covered the spread in just one of their past four contests.
However, one of the big positives coming out of the Colts’ Week 11 victory is the team’s offensive performance. Indianapolis racked up 264 rushing yards against Jacksonville, their best production since 1985, while tallying three scoring runs. The Colts defense also surrendered just 53 total yards over four Jaguars possessions in the second half before surrendering a meaningless touchdown in the dying minutes.
The Colts have proven effective at shutting down the Texans offense in recent visits to Houston, allowing just 14 points per game over three straight outright victories. Indianapolis has also enjoyed regular success in NFL betting when facing the Texans. The Colts have amassed a 10-3-2 ATS record in 15 overall meetings with their divisional rival since 2012, and own a 3-3 SU record against Houston in six dates as road underdogs since 2011.
But matchups on Thursday night have not gone well for Indianapolis. The Colts have averaged just 14.7 points per game while falling to defeat by double-digit margins in each of their past three appearances, ending an 11-1 SU run. And while Indianapolis currently holds the No. 3 seed in the AFC, they continue to lag on the NFL futures as +140 second-favorites to win the AFC South, and as a lengthy +3300 bet on the AFC championship odds.
*Odds as of November 19, 2019
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