Sunday Night Matchup Has Pats as Road Favorites

The New England Patriots will be looking to end a two-game straight-up losing streak in road appearances on Sunday Night Football when they visit the Houston Texans in primetime this weekend as 3.5-point favorites on the Week 13 NFL betting odds.

New England is coming off a narrow 13-9 win in a rain-soaked clash with the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, and will now face a divisional leader for the third time in four outings in Sunday night’s game at NRG Stadium.

The Patriots enjoyed a favorable schedule during the first half of the NFL football season, marching to an 8-0 SU start while facing just two opponents currently in playoff contention. But the competition has stiffened considerably over the team’s past three outings. New England was dominated in its first SU defeat of the campaign, falling 37-20 to the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens as 3-point road chalk in Week 9, and needed a spirited comeback to eke out a slim 17-10 win in Philadelphia while favored by 4.5 points two weeks ago.

Overall, the Patriots have been regular winners on the scoreboard when playing away from Gillette Stadium, but have failed to produce steady results on the NFL lines. New England has earned SU wins in five of six road contests. However, the Patriots have compiled a middling 7-7 record against the NFL spread in 14 regular season away contests since the start of the 2018 season.

Low scoring has contributed to the Patriots’ checkered ATS results on the road. The team has limited opponents to 10 or fewer points in five of six road dates this season, extending a trend that has seen the UNDER prevail in totals betting in 15 of 20 regular season road games since the start of the 2017 campaign.

 

First-Place Texans Coming Off Victory Last Week

 

Such low-scoring contests are just fine with the Texans, who claimed sole possession of first place in the AFC South last weekend with a 20-17 win over the division rival Indianapolis Colts as 3.5-point chalk.  Like the Patriots, Houston has been forced to rebound from a recent lopsided loss in Baltimore, a 41-7 defeat as a 4.5-point underdog in Week 11 that marked the team’s worst beating in almost two years.

The Texans’ victory over Indianapolis extended their SU home win streak to three games, and their overall home record to 4-1. But the Texans have failed to regularly reward bettors, going 1-4 ATS on the NFL odds in their past five contests, and have covered just once over their five home dates this season. However, Houston has proven to be a steady performer when the point total goes UNDER, winning outright in seven of its past nine.

The trends also look unfavorable for the Texans when they are pegged as underdogs on home turf. Houston sports dismal 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS records in its past 15 overall regular season dates as a home underdog. And things have been no better for the Texans when hitting the gridiron at NRG Stadium as underdogs of four or fewer points, posting a 3-10 SU record in NFL betting while covering on just four occasions during that stretch.

Further complicating matters is the Texans’ current six-game SU losing streak against New England dating back to 2012, which features a pair of home defeats, capped by a 27-6 loss to the visiting Patriots as 5-point underdogs in December 2015.

Houston has also fallen to outright defeat in eight of their past 11 appearances on Sunday Night Football, including a 2-6 SU mark on home turf. But despite being faced with so many unfavorable trends, and holding a slender one-game lead atop the divisional standings, the Texans remain -175 favorites to repeat as AFC South champions.

*Odds as of November 29, 2019

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