2020 College Football Win-Total Best Bets

• Landing USC transfer JT Daniels would help Michigan hit the OVER on its 9.5 regular-season win total 
• Gus Malzahn has exceeded Auburn’s 8.5 win total in just two of his eight seasons at the school 
• The Mike Norvell hire should put Florida State back on the right track after years of losing football    

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While Dabo Swinney has ‘zero doubt’ that the college football season will start on time with ‘packed’ stadiums, there is a significant chance that the NCAA will be forced to postpone or cancel games due to COVID-19.

The team win-totals below of course assume a full schedule unfolds, and since we just covered top schools like Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and LSU while breaking down the odds to make the four-team College Football Playoff, let’s instead focus on a few teams in the tier below.

2020 NCAAF WIN TOTALS: MICHIGAN

Team	Regular-Season Wins	Over Odds	Under Odds
Michigan Wolverines	9.5	+175	-210

WOLVERINES – OVER 9.5 WINS

After correctly calling Michigan to hit the UNDER on 9.5 wins last summer, we’re going to swing the other way to grab the +175 OVER. Sure, it’s a bit of gamble given that Jim Harbaugh has only surpassed 9.5 regular-season victories in two of his five years at Ann Arbor and three of his nine seasons in college football, but there are a couple of positives to point toward.

Namely, the Wolverines have emerged as a front-runner to land USC transfer JT Daniels, a former five-star prospect at quarterback who Harbaugh reportedly prioritized in the 2018 recruiting class.

Maybe college football coaches should just shut up about the COVID-19 pandemic https://t.co/0MpSoAAy5T pic.twitter.com/hT5kYikc5r

— The Comeback (@thecomeback) April 12, 2020

Expected to be fully recovered from the torn ACL and meniscus injuries he suffered in last year’s season-opener, Daniels would give Michigan an immediate upgrade over Dylan McCaffrey or Joe Milton.

With a strong defensive line and secondary, they should also improve on defense after a down year. Expect the Wolverines to win ten games before their inevitable season-finale loss against Ohio State.

2020 NCAAF WIN TOTALS: AUBURN

Team	Regular-Season Wins	Over Odds	Under Odds
Auburn Tigers	8.5	-210	+175

TIGERS – UNDER 8.5 WINS

After finishing 9-4 last season with an impressive victory over Alabama and hard-fought losses against both LSU and Georgia, you could see the Tigers as a team on the way up. However, Auburn lost four starters on its offensive line as well as defensive tackle Derrick Brown, who many expect to be a top-ten pick in the NFL Draft.

So, the defense will likely regress and SEC Freshman of the Year Bo Nix could be in trouble if he isn’t protected properly. There’s also the fact that Gus Malzahn, who has only exceeded 8.5 wins in two of his eight seasons at the college, made a questionable hire in naming fired Arkansas coach Chad Morris as the team’s new offensive coordinator.

“With a guy like Bo, there’s two truths about him.” https://t.co/N0W9wZVjV2

— Brandon Marcello (@bmarcello) April 14, 2020

When a school plays in the SEC West, it’s easy to find Ls on their schedule. If you assume the Tigers will lose to Alabama, Georgia and LSU — which we do — then they only need to drop one more game in order for the UNDER to cash.

With one of the tougher schedules in all of college football, Auburn looks like an eight-win club at best.

2020 NCAAF WIN TOTALS: FLORIDA ST.

Team	Regular-Season Wins	Over Odds	Under Odds
Florida State Seminoles	7.5	-110	-110

SEMINOLES (7.5 WINS) – OVER

Things haven’t gone too well for either the Seminoles or Jameis Winston since the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback left for the NFL in 2015.

FSU has finished a miserable 18-20 over the last three seasons, but the hire of new head coach Mike Norvell should be a step in the right direction. After Norvell arrived in Memphis, he tripled the number of 10-win seasons in the school’s history, going 12-1 in 2019 while leading one of the most potent offenses in college football.

Mike Norvell gushes over FSU’s coordinators https://t.co/kXkzqa7QQi via @Noles247

— Noles247.com (@Noles247) April 16, 2020

Norvell will be hamstrung by the cancellation of spring practice and (likely) other summer team activities, but his track record suggests he’ll be able to get the most out of the Seminoles’ skill position players.

While he’s unlikely to get Florida State back to their National Championship winning ways anytime soon, securing 8 victories in a soft conference like the ACC isn’t exactly scaling Kilimanjaro.

 

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