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Why 90% of “Value Bets” Aren’t Actually Value: A Deep Dive Into Probability Calibration in Sports Betting

sports betting analysis -value plays

The math looks bulletproof. You run your model, compare your probability estimate to the bookmaker’s implied odds, and find a gap. Your spreadsheet says this is a value bet. You stake accordingly. Then you lose. Again. And again. Only 2% to 3% of sports bettors stay profitable annually. The other 97% to 98% lose money […]

The post Why 90% of “Value Bets” Aren’t Actually Value: A Deep Dive Into Probability Calibration in Sports Betting appeared first on Sportsbook Advisor.



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